⬡ Gold Markets
Gold spot price steadied at approximately $4,751/oz on April 12, 2026, following a volatile week shaped by US-Iran peace talks and ceasefire developments. An initial ceasefire announcement on April 8 briefly pushed prices to ~$4,888 before a pullback. Global gold ETF flows showed a divergence in March, with record North American outflows of US$13bn offsetting continued Asian inflows, while central bank purchasing remains historically elevated heading into Q2.
Spot gold held around $4,751/oz on April 12 after the initial ceasefire announcement on April 8 sent prices briefly to ~$4,888. Domestic Indian prices also gained to ₹1.52 lakh per 10g.
North America was the only region to post net outflows in Q1 2026, recording its largest monthly outflow on record in March, though the broader seven-quarter global inflow trend was described as interrupted rather than derailed.
Asian gold ETF flows remain positive, with China and broader Asia continuing to support global gold demand. Global ETF inflows in the first two months of 2026 reached 78 tonnes, up 73% year-on-year.
Central banks purchased 863 tonnes in 2025, at the upper end of expectations, marking a third consecutive year above 1,000 tonnes when combined with prior years. In 2026, central bank demand is tracking within 3% of 2025 levels.
J.P. Morgan forecast gold rising 22% from late-February levels to reach $6,300/oz by end-2026, citing Fed easing expectations, sustained central bank demand, and rising ETF inflows as primary drivers.
◈ Iran Situation
US-Iran direct talks in Islamabad, Pakistan collapsed on April 12 after 21 hours of negotiations, with US Vice President JD Vance stating Iran refused to accept Washington's terms — chiefly a verifiable commitment not to develop nuclear weapons. Following the breakdown, President Trump announced the US Navy would immediately begin blockading the Strait of Hormuz. The two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan on April 8 remains nominally in effect, though both sides continue to contest its scope.
US Vice President JD Vance told reporters that Iran refused to accept Washington's terms after marathon talks — the highest-level direct US-Iran engagement since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Iran's government said technical experts would continue exchanging documents.
Following the collapse of negotiations in Islamabad, Trump announced the US Navy would immediately blockade all ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies transit.
The US is demanding a verifiable commitment that Iran will not develop nuclear weapons or near-threshold capability. Iran contests that the April 8 ceasefire also covers Israel's operations in Lebanon — a position the US and Israel both reject.
The ceasefire agreed April 8, which halted over 40 days of US-Israeli strikes on Iran, is still nominally active. Iran's government confirmed negotiations would continue despite 'remaining differences,' without specifying a timeline for resumption.
Prime Minister Netanyahu confirmed Israel endorsed the Pakistan-brokered ceasefire with Iran proper but explicitly stated it would not extend to ongoing Israeli military operations against Hezbollah and in southern Lebanon, directly contradicting Iranian and Pakistani claims.
◇ Canadian Defence
Canada achieved its NATO 2% GDP defence spending target in early 2026, half a decade ahead of schedule, and has committed to over $50 billion in DND spending for 2026-27. Major investments are underway in Arctic sovereignty infrastructure — including a $6.5 billion Arctic over-the-horizon radar system and up to $8 billion at 5 Wing Goose Bay — while the CAF is modernising cyber capabilities and rethinking armoured doctrine in light of drone warfare lessons from Ukraine.
Canada confirmed it achieved the NATO 2% of GDP defence spending benchmark in March 2026, five years ahead of its original timeline, and is on a path toward the new 5% pledge by 2035.
Analysts caution that despite new investments, Canada still trails significantly in Arctic military infrastructure relative to Russia and China, raising sovereignty concerns.
Minister Thompson announced up to $8 billion in long-term investment at 5 Wing Goose Bay as a key NORAD northern basing infrastructure site.
Canada's army is accelerating timelines for new armoured vehicles and reconsidering the role of tanks following lessons from Ukraine's drone-dominated battlefield.
CAFCYBERCOM marked a key milestone with the launch of its Command badge, reaffirming its role protecting NORAD warning systems, Arctic operations, and deployed CAF missions.