⬡ Gold Markets
Gold spot price traded at $4,733/oz on April 13, 2026, down 0.3% on the session following failed US-Iran peace talks and Washington's announcement of a Strait of Hormuz blockade. Bullion remains approximately 80% higher than early 2025 levels, though it sits roughly 15% below the all-time record of $5,595/oz set on January 29, 2026. Central bank demand remains a structural tailwind, with purchases on pace to exceed 1,200 tonnes in 2026 for a potential fourth consecutive year above 1,000 tonnes.
Gold opened the week at $4,733/oz on April 13, 2026, with markets digesting geopolitical risk after US-Iran talks broke down and Washington signalled a Strait of Hormuz blockade.
Union Bancaire Privée reaffirmed its $6,000/oz target on April 13, citing structural demand from central banks and persistent geopolitical uncertainty. Institutional forecasts range from $5,400 (Goldman Sachs) to $6,300 (JPMorgan).
North American gold ETFs recorded $13bn in outflows in March 2026, ending a nine-month inflow streak and marking the largest single-month outflow on record, even as Asian and European funds saw continued inflows.
Kitco reported gold at $4,667/oz on April 6 following softer US services data and Iran-linked energy price shocks, with safe-haven and geopolitical risk premiums continuing to underpin prices.
Global central banks collectively purchased over 1,100 tonnes in 2025, the third consecutive year above 1,000 tonnes. 2026 purchases are forecast to exceed 1,200 tonnes, remaining a key structural driver of gold demand.
◈ Iran Situation
A two-week US-Iran ceasefire declared on April 7 following 40 days of US-Israeli strikes on Iran remains technically in effect, but collapsed diplomatically after marathon talks in Islamabad on April 12 failed to produce a deal. On April 13, the US military announced it would begin blocking all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports, which Iran condemned as illegal and tantamount to piracy.
The US military stated it will block all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports beginning at 10:00 ET (14:00 GMT) on April 13. Iran's armed forces called the move 'an illegal act and amounts to piracy' under international law.
US Vice President JD Vance stated Iran refused to accept Washington's terms following 21 hours of direct negotiations in Pakistan on April 12. The US maintained a core demand for a firm Iranian commitment not to develop nuclear weapons capability; Iran rejected that framing while offering to negotiate limits on enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief.
Analysis from Haaretz notes that Iran gained a degree of renewed international legitimacy through the Islamabad talks — the first direct US-Iran engagement since the 1979 revolution — and has deliberately left the diplomatic door open despite the breakdown.
Iranian negotiators have stated their conditions include return of frozen foreign assets, Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz, war reparations, and a ceasefire across the region including in Lebanon. US ally Israel has declined to halt its operations in Lebanon, creating a significant obstacle.
Iranian authorities issued statements on April 12 describing the government as remaining defiant and urging its supporters to maintain a public presence, signalling internal messaging aimed at projecting stability amid the failed negotiations and ongoing military pressure.
◇ Canadian Defence
Canada has met NATO's 2% GDP defence spending target for the first time since the end of the Cold War, driven by a $9.3-billion surge and accounting changes. The government has committed $35 billion toward Arctic and northern defence infrastructure as part of NORAD modernisation, while the army is reassessing its armoured vehicle strategy in light of drone-dominated warfare lessons from Ukraine. Defence experts continue to warn that Canada lags significantly in Arctic security capabilities relative to Russia and China.
Canada has reached NATO's 2% GDP defence spending benchmark for the first time since the Cold War, boosted by a $9.3-billion surge and internal accounting changes. The milestone comes amid sustained pressure from allies and the Trump administration.
Prime Minister Carney announced a comprehensive $35-billion investment in Arctic and northern defence infrastructure, including $6.5 billion for a new Arctic Over-the-Horizon Radar system developed in partnership with Australia, aimed at reducing reliance on the US for Arctic defence.
Security analysts are warning that Canada remains significantly behind Russia and China in Arctic military capability and sovereignty presence, despite the announced northern investment commitments.
The Canadian Army is accelerating timelines for new armoured vehicle acquisitions while reassessing the role of tanks on a drone-dominated battlefield, drawing on lessons from the conflict in Ukraine. Canada's NATO Latvia deployment is to be maintained through 2029.
Canadian Armed Forces Cyber Command (CAFCYBERCOM) launched its official Command badge, cementing its role as Canada's military authority for cyber operations protecting NORAD warning systems, Arctic sovereignty operations, and naval and air platforms.